FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Last weekend was an “any given Sunday” type of day, which is why the NFL remains king in our country.
The Browns beat the 49ers 19-17 as nearly 10-point underdogs.
The Jets, who were 6.5-point underdogs, beat the Eagles 20-14.
The Giants, who closed near 16-point dogs, took the Bills to the final play to cover in a 14-9 loss.
Are we getting any of those betting upsets this upcoming Sunday?
Let’s find out.
Here’s a look at a couple of early NFL bets to make for Week 7.
(All times ET Sunday)
Cardinals @ Seahawks (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Arizona was a fun story for the first three weeks of the season.
A team that cleared its roster of impact players that everyone assumed was tanking played far better than expected. Took Washington to the wire in Week 1, was up 28-0 against the Giants at halftime in Week 2 and then upset the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3.
Since that win, the Cardinals have lost by 19 points to the 49ers, 14 to the Bengals and 17 to the Rams. They are not the same team we saw earlier this season, and it’s time to board the fade train this weekend.
The Seahawks lost to the Bengals on Sunday, and upon their film review, they will see plenty of missed offensive opportunities. Quarterback Geno Smith missed open receivers, and the offense was unsuccessful twice in the red zone with a chance to win the game.
Seattle’s defense played well, as expected. The Seahawks, in general, are a playoff squad, and their loss against the Bengals shouldn’t change that.
I know this is a big number, but Seattle is back home and playing an Arizona team back on the road again. The Cardinals have lost steam, lost their running back (James Conner) and their offense has played like the unit we expected this season with backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
I like Seattle to run away with this game.
PICK: Seahawks (-8) to win by more than 8 points
Chargers @ Chiefs (4:25 p.m., CBS)
The Chargers lost another disappointing game on Monday Night football, but they treat games against Kansas City like their Super Bowl.
Since Justin Herbert has been in Los Angeles, the games against K.C. are the best we’ve seen from his team. Here are the results of the five matchups between the Chiefs and Chargers when both Patrick Mahomes and Herbert played (Chargers won big at the end of 2020 when Mahomes did not play): In Herbert’s first career NFL start in Week 2 of the 2020 season, the Chargers lost in overtime 23-20. In 2021, both games were six-point margins, with the Chargers winning in Kansas City 30-24 before losing 34-28 in overtime in Los Angeles. Then, both games in 2022 were three-point wins by the Chiefs (27-24, 30-27).
Look for more of the same this weekend. This game will be close. These games always are. Give me the Chargers and the points.
PICK: Chargers (+6) to lose by fewer than 6 points (or win outright)
NFL Rankings: Jared Goff leads Lions’ rise & Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins stay on top!
Rams to make the playoffs
I don’t know what to make of the Rams other than QB Matthew Stafford is healthy again and playing well, and Sean McVay is coaching his butt off with this young roster. When zooming out and looking at the big picture, the Rams are 3-3 with plenty of winnable games left on the schedule.
Barring injuries and weirdness, the playoffs tend to feature the best quarterbacks in each conference. The top of the NFC are Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, San Francisco’s Brock Purdy and Detroit’s Jared Goff.
All of those teams are 5-1 and should win their divisions. Unfortunately, someone from the NFC South will be a division winner, and the odds point to the Saints right now.
I feel comfortable with the Cowboys being the fifth seed again so that leaves two spots left in the NFC.
Eliminating the teams sitting at 1-5 or worse from the discussion leaves just seven teams. Here are those teams and quarterbacks: Geno Smith (Seahawks), Sam Howell (Commanders), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Desmond Ridder (Falcons), Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) or Jordan Love (Packers).
Which two of these quarterbacks will lead their team to the playoffs over Stafford?
Seattle’s Smith stands out as a quarterback who is most likely guiding a playoff team. Then it opens up. None of the other quarterbacks, teams or head coaches are better than the Rams.
I believe there’s value in a Los Angeles playoff wager right now.
PICK: Rams to make playoffs (+138) (bet $10 to win $23.80 total)
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.