Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It’s finally time for football, folks.
Last NFL season, I ranked all 32 teams’ Super Bowl odds. And I’m doing it again this year. You’re welcome ahead of time.
However, this time, I’m giving you 10 teams that can realistically win it all, ranked from 10 to 1. You will see the usual big dogs on the list, but I also wanted to mix in a couple of long shots that have chances to make a run if things break right for them.
Let’s dive into the fun.
10. Buffalo Bills +900
The Bills were hurling toward a Super Bowl, and then they had a ton of random things happen starting around Thanksgiving that derailed what was a fantastic season. They handled the Chiefs at Arrowhead, and it felt like that was the Bills’ year. Then, it all crumbled.
Now, they come into the season with questions about the release of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, the work-in-progress offensive line and a brutal schedule that is among the league’s toughest. Of course, they still have the talent to make it happen.
9. New Orleans Saints +3500
I’m throwing this Super Bowl dart based on two things. The first is that the Saints have one of the weakest schedules in the NFL and the second is that they are in the NFC.
The top three teams in the NFC are all likely coming down a peg. And they added Derek Carr at quarterback. No other team had that kind of upgrade. I’m not saying this is the equivalent of Matthew Stafford going from the Lions to the Rams and that Carr is definitely going to lead the Saints to the Super Bowl. But look at that schedule, consider the Saints getting home–field advantage and a first-round bye, and then give it some more thought.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers +6000
Back in July, I had the Steelers in the AFC title game, and nothing in the preseason changed my mind. The only hint of caution here is that since I began hyping the Steelers, a lot of gamblers have followed, and there’s now palpable buzz about a team I thought would be a sleeper.
I’ll take a bite of them to win the AFC North, too.
7. New York Jets +1600
Nobody has a harder first six games than the Jets. If their OL can hold up early against the Bills’ pass rush, the Cowboys’ pass rush and the Patriots’ defense, the Jets’ Super Bowl odds will shrink. If the opposite is true — well, you got a bad number.
If the Jets manage to get to 3-3, that’s a great sign given the rest of the schedule. Every AFC team is flawed — yes, even the Chiefs. Adding Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook to a 7-10 team should make a significant difference unless the defense badly regresses.
6. Miami Dolphins +2100
I don’t make a habit of tying up money for months on a team with the second-toughest schedule in the NFL, but the Dolphins could be worth a flier if you believe in Tua Tagovailoa. Tua who was one of the NFL’s best QBs when healthy in the first half of last season. The early reports about uncertainty in the secondary and the health of the offensive line don’t have me feeling very good about this.
5. San Francisco 49ers +900
They should be fine … right? You wonder how much the defense falls off after losing another defensive coordinator. And they lost a right tackle. And Nick Bosa isn’t signed. And then you start to wonder how long it’ll take the four new defensive starters to mesh. And then, scenarios exist where the Seahawks maybe push them for top spot in the division. But it’s tough not to like San Francisco’s chances with Arizona and the Rams probably tanking in the division.
4. Los Angeles Chargers +2200
If the Chargers can get by Miami in the opener, there’s a solid path to 4-0 heading into the bye week, followed by a road game at home (see what I did there?) against Dallas. On paper, this team should put up major points, but questions loom about the head coach. The choices seem extreme: In January, they could be in the AFC title game, or they could be looking to hire a new coach.
3. Dallas Cowboys +1500
This could be Dak Prescott’s final year in Dallas if he doesn’t deliver in the postseason. The Cowboys might be in better shape than the Eagles or 49ers when you consider Philly’s coordinator losses and a much tougher schedule, and San Francisco’s QB questions.
Dallas might have the best defense in the NFL, and if you believe in Prescott, then you are making this bet. Forget that it hasn’t made a conference title game in over two decades!
2. Philadelphia Eagles +750
They’ve got a better chance to get back to the Super Bowl than the Chiefs, but only because they play in the NFC. Nobody expects the offensive line to be that healthy again. And can Jalen Hurts play that well again? No QB made more of a quantum leap last year. There hasn’t been a repeat NFC East champ in years, but this stacked Eagles team has as good a chance as any.
1. Cincinnati Bengals +1000
Can you find a weakness? Besides Joe Burrow starting the season recovering from a calf injury? You could point to the secondary losing three starters, but it’s an offensive league, and if Burrow gets the ball last, you have to like his chances. The division is brutal, and not getting the No. 1 seed means you’ll most likely have to go through both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. And that’s going to be extremely difficult.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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