FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Whew, did that 5-1 weekend feel good!
Dan Campbell tried his best to keep our Saints +4 wager alive, but a successful completion from Jared Goff spoiled what could’ve been a perfect six-pack.
I’ve got one college football bet and three NFL plays this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
Army Black Knights (-3, O/U 27.5) vs. Navy Midshipmen
I’m not going to overthink this one.
Army-Navy is always a spectacle, and it’s a great showcase of American pride. However, it’s far from exciting when it comes to offense. Both teams are averaging around 17 points per game. Not great!
This will be like watching Iowa play Iowa.
Rather than deal with the entire game, I’m slicing the pie into fours. I expect both offenses to be very tight in the first quarter. You’ll likely see a bunch of runs, incompletions and punts as the two teams find their footing.
They’re daring you to go “Over,” but you know better.
PICK: 1Q Under 6.5 points
Army vs. Navy best bets, predictions and odds in Week 15
Detroit Lions (-3.5, O/U 43) at Chicago Bears
Jared Goff and cold weather do not get along.
My last memory of Goff playing in 30-degree Chicago weather is when he threw four interceptions in December 2018 and then complained about not being able to grip the football after the game. I’m not kidding.
Fast-forward to this season when the Bears were the better team in the first meeting for about 56 minutes at Ford Field. Remember? Chicago led 26-14 with 4:15 to go and completely melted down at the end.
The Bears should run the ball at will in this game, and Justin Fields is the type of quarterback that gives the Lions fits. I expect him to make plays with both his arm and legs to give Chicago a chance to be in this all the way.
Take the points.
PICK: Bears (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Minnesota Vikings (-3, O/U 40.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Justin Jefferson is back.
Minnesota’s star wideout returns to the fold after missing seven games with a hamstring injury. And boy, did they miss him in the passing attack. Jefferson’s availability allows everybody else to go back to their respective roles.
Life will be easier for everybody wearing purple.
My favorite matchup, though, is Minnesota’s defense against Las Vegas’ offense. The Raiders are very “hit or miss” on that side of the ball with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell. If Danielle Hunter and friends can pressure the pocket, the Vikings will be in a very good position.
PICK: Vikings (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, O/U 41)
My buddy Adam Chernoff from RAS loves this one.
The number has climbed a little bit over the last couple of days, and maybe some of you still have a stale 40.5 you can bet. It’s mostly 41 in the market, so that’s the number I’ll discuss for this weekend.
These teams met in late October, and the final score was a bit misleading. Atlanta eked out a 16-13 victory, but the Bucs and Birds combined for almost 750 yards of offense. Five turnovers and two 24-yard field goals kept it low.
I agree with Adam’s assessment that these two attacks are more efficient than they get credit for, and if they protect the football, we should be fine.
PICK: Over 41 points scored by both teams combined
2023 Record: (34-31-2, -0.3)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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